---
title: "Government Actuary's Department - Stochastic Economic Scenarios"
ocid: "ocds-b5fd17-1b14c929-ac06-45cc-8b2e-50d081723c5a"
canonical_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-1b14c929-ac06-45cc-8b2e-50d081723c5a"
markdown_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-1b14c929-ac06-45cc-8b2e-50d081723c5a.md"
json_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-1b14c929-ac06-45cc-8b2e-50d081723c5a.json"
source: "Contracts Finder"
current_stage: "Award"
buyer: "GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT"
published: "2022-07-26"
---

# Government Actuary's Department - Stochastic Economic Scenarios

Buyer: GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT  
Current stage: Award  
OCID: ocds-b5fd17-1b14c929-ac06-45cc-8b2e-50d081723c5a

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## Summary

The Government Actuary's Department is seeking tenders for the provision of stochastic economic scenarios, under the contract titled "Stochastic Economic Scenarios." This initiative falls within the actuarial services industry, specifically targeting service providers located in the United Kingdom. The tender process is currently in the Award stage, having concluded the tender period on 11 August 2021. The awarded contract, valued at £170,843.38, will commence on 19 September 2021 and is set to run until 19 September 2024. Interested suppliers were required to submit tenders via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk.

This tender presents significant opportunities for growth for businesses specialising in economic modelling and actuarial services. Companies capable of delivering robust economic forecasts, particularly those with expertise in inflation, interest rates, and asset returns, would be well-positioned to compete for this contract. Additionally, organisations with capabilities in alternative scenario generation and stress testing may further enhance their bid proposals, as the Government Actuary's Department also seeks innovative solutions for stress testing economic scenarios and potentially procuring economic scenario models for internal use.

## Notice

A key part of our advice relates to, or relies on, the potential outturns for key economic variables - in particular in relation to asset returns, inflation and future interest rates. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a set of stochastic economic scenarios ("scenarios", "scenario set" or "economic scenario file"). The economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering inflation, interest rates, credit, derivatives, FX and a range of asset classes. The scenarios are used in several areas of our advice, particularly for asset liability model runs for pension schemes, and are used to examine and illustrate the potential range of possible future outcomes. We require that a set of scenarios be provided to us regularly, at least quarterly, over the period of the contract. We also required that the scenarios: i) are based on sound economic principles and methods; ii) are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date of the calibration to ensure consistency with the date at which they are used; and iii) are calibrated to reflect either the provider's own view or GAD's own house-view on the long-term outcome for key economic variables in the scenario set. GAD does not currently have a current provider of this service, though we have previously purchased one-off calibrations to support particular projects. In addition to the standard scenario files based on these principles, it is standard actuarial practice to consider other plausible assumptions and demonstrate the sensitivity of our advice to other assumptions. To inform this, we also require the ability to generate additional scenarios based on alternative views and calibration parameters and/or carry out stress testing on the scenario set. GAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an "economic scenario model" to provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to current levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to us based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the supplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us directly. However, depending on the level of capacity and capability required to maintain and run such models ourselves, GAD are interested to explore this as an additional service and tenderers are invited to disclose such service provision in their response. Tenders for must be submitted via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Failure to do so may result in the tender response not being processed or the response being automatically disqualified during the evaluation stage of the tender process.

## Key Details

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication source | Contracts Finder |
| Latest notice | https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/cc85dbab-c380-4b8b-a58f-423a59cb8380 |
| Notice type | Award Notice |
| Procurement type | Standard |
| Procurement category | Services |
| Procurement method | Open |
| Procurement method details | Open procedure (above threshold) |
| Tender suitability | Not specified |
| Awardee scale | Large |
| All stages | Tender, Award |

## Dates

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication date | 26 Jul 2022 |
| Submission deadline | 11 Aug 2021 |
| Future notice date | Not specified |
| Award date | 7 Jan 2022 |
| Contract period | 7 Jan 2022 - 6 Jan 2025 |
| Recurrence | Not specified |

## Values

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender value | £170,843 |
| Lots value | Not specified |
| Awards value | £170,843 |
| Contracts value | Not specified |

## Status

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender status | Complete |
| Lots status | Not specified |
| Awards status | Active |
| Contracts status | Not specified |

## Buyer

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Main buyer | GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT |
| Locality | LONDON |
| Post town | Central London |
| Postcode | EC4A 1AB |
| Country | England |
| ITL 1 | TLI London |
| ITL 2 | TLI3 Inner London - West |
| ITL 3 | TLI35 Westminster and City of London |
| Local authority | City of London |
| Electoral ward | Farringdon Without |
| Westminster constituency | Cities of London and Westminster |
| Delivery location | Not specified |

## Supplier

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Number of suppliers | 1 |
| Supplier names | MOODY'S ANALYTICS |

## CPV Codes

### Divisions

- 66 - Financial and insurance services

### Codes

- 66519600 - Actuarial services

## Release History

- 26 Jul 2022 at 13:24 - Award - Award Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/cc85dbab-c380-4b8b-a58f-423a59cb8380
- 26 Jul 2022 at 13:19 - TenderAmendment - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
- 26 Jul 2022 at 13:16 - TenderAmendment - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
- 26 Jul 2022 at 13:06 - TenderAmendment - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
- 14 Jul 2022 at 10:37 - TenderAmendment - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
- 4 Aug 2021 at 15:53 - TenderAmendment - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
- 15 Jul 2021 at 12:47 - TenderAmendment - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
- 14 Jul 2021 at 09:57 - Tender - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744

## Documents

- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/cc85dbab-c380-4b8b-a58f-423a59cb8380
  26th July 2022 - Awarded contract notice on Contracts Finder
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
  26th July 2022 - Opportunity notice on Contracts Finder
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/c824a29a-4ec9-4793-bbcc-41a3987c2d07
  Invitation to Tender
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/b0fc7691-9725-423c-af8d-5eefee30fa6f
  Cost Template
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/ecd75d88-776d-48cc-803e-9f41f6f10668
  FAQs
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/d1afee57-1b42-49ac-b6d5-997c0bbf579d
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/a4f1cd02-52aa-4df5-a60d-9f3f423a7ddd

## Notice URLs

- https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/government-actuarys-department

## Provenance

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