---
title: "Reference Class Forecasting and MMA Outturn Cost Analysis"
ocid: "ocds-b5fd17-5377a358-a957-477a-aa3a-bb28efa2f3b1"
canonical_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-5377a358-a957-477a-aa3a-bb28efa2f3b1"
markdown_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-5377a358-a957-477a-aa3a-bb28efa2f3b1.md"
json_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-5377a358-a957-477a-aa3a-bb28efa2f3b1.json"
source: "Contracts Finder"
current_stage: "Award"
buyer: "West Midlands Combined Authority"
published: "2026-09-07"
---

# Reference Class Forecasting and MMA Outturn Cost Analysis

Buyer: West Midlands Combined Authority  
Current stage: Award  
OCID: ocds-b5fd17-5377a358-a957-477a-aa3a-bb28efa2f3b1

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## Summary

West Midlands Combined Authority commissioned independent reference class forecasting and outturn cost analysis for the Sports Quarter and Adderley Park schemes. The work covers establishing a reference class forecast for the schemes and analysing Midland Metro Alliance outturn cost data from completed sections of work to create an internal MMA reference class. This is a business and business-related consultancy service, classified under CPV 79900000, delivered in the West Midlands. The requirement is relevant to firms providing infrastructure cost analysis, benchmarking, reference class forecasting, project controls, commercial assurance or related transport and major-project advisory services.

The procurement has been awarded following a selective call-off from the GCA MCF 4 RM6309 Infrastructure framework, Lot 8. The tender closed on 31 July 2026, and the award was made on 5 August 2026 to Allora Infrastructure Limited. The awarded value is £70,733 including the stated currency of GBP. The contract period runs from 26 August 2026 to 31 October 2026. The requirement was evaluated through the framework call-off process, with the procurement categorised as services. It was identified as unsuitable for small and medium-sized enterprises and voluntary, community or social enterprises.

For suppliers that did not win, this award demonstrates a defined demand from West Midlands Combined Authority for independent cost forecasting and evidence-led analysis of major transport and infrastructure programmes. Credible competitors would need expertise in reference class forecasting, outturn cost analysis and cost benchmarking, with the ability to interpret completed-project data and turn it into a usable internal reference class. They would also need infrastructure and transport-sector understanding, strong analytical and reporting capability, and sufficient capacity to work across live schemes and historic delivery data. Experience supporting public bodies, infrastructure alliances or major capital programmes would help establish credibility, particularly where advice must provide independent assurance rather than routine cost consultancy.

## Notice

Call off from a Framework - GCA MCF 4 RM6309 Lot 8 Infrastructure to Establish an independent Reference Class Forecast (RCF) for Sports Quarter and Adderley Park Scheme and analyse Midland Metro Alliance outturn cost data from completed sections of work to establish an internal MMA reference class

## Key Details

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication source | Contracts Finder |
| Latest notice | https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/72ac9e97-9ed0-4a35-9bed-427f073b13bf |
| Notice type | Award Notice |
| Procurement type | Framework |
| Procurement category | Services |
| Procurement method | Selective |
| Procurement method details | Call-off from a framework agreement |
| Tender suitability | Not specified |
| Awardee scale | Large |
| All stages | Award |

## Dates

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication date | 7 Sep 2026 |
| Submission deadline | Not specified |
| Future notice date | Not specified |
| Award date | 5 Aug 2026 |
| Contract period | 26 Aug 2026 - 31 Oct 2026 |
| Recurrence | Not specified |

## Values

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender value | £70,733 |
| Lots value | Not specified |
| Awards value | £70,733 |
| Contracts value | Not specified |

## Status

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender status | Complete |
| Lots status | Not specified |
| Awards status | Active |
| Contracts status | Not specified |

## Buyer

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Main buyer | West Midlands Combined Authority |
| Locality | BIRMINGHAM |
| Postcode area | Birmingham |
| Postcode | B19 3SD |
| Country | England |
| ITL 1 | TLG West Midlands (England) |
| ITL 2 | TLG3 West Midlands |
| ITL 3 | TLG31 Birmingham |
| Local authority | Birmingham |
| Electoral ward | Newtown |
| Westminster constituency | Birmingham Ladywood |
| Delivery location | TLG West Midlands (England) |

## Supplier

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Number of suppliers | 1 |
| Supplier names | Allora Infrastructure Limited |

## CPV Codes

### Divisions

- 79 - Business services: law, marketing, consulting, recruitment, printing and security

### Codes

- 79900000 - Miscellaneous business and business-related services

## Release History

- 7 Sep 2026 at 14:41 - Award - Award Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/72ac9e97-9ed0-4a35-9bed-427f073b13bf

## Documents

- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/72ac9e97-9ed0-4a35-9bed-427f073b13bf
  7th September 2026 - Awarded contract notice on Contracts Finder

## Provenance

This Markdown file is an alternate public rendering of the D3 Tenders contract record. The canonical page is https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-5377a358-a957-477a-aa3a-bb28efa2f3b1. The underlying structured data is available as OCDS JSON at https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-5377a358-a957-477a-aa3a-bb28efa2f3b1.json.