---
title: "Stochastic - Economic scenario generator"
ocid: "ocds-b5fd17-8e4f86b1-7e35-4250-918c-634212fad50f"
canonical_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-8e4f86b1-7e35-4250-918c-634212fad50f"
markdown_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-8e4f86b1-7e35-4250-918c-634212fad50f.md"
json_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-8e4f86b1-7e35-4250-918c-634212fad50f.json"
source: "Contracts Finder"
current_stage: "Award"
buyer: "GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT"
published: "2022-07-19"
---

# Stochastic - Economic scenario generator

Buyer: GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT  
Current stage: Award  
OCID: ocds-b5fd17-8e4f86b1-7e35-4250-918c-634212fad50f

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## Summary

The Government Actuary Department (GAD) is seeking a provider for stochastic economic scenario generation, a critical service for forecasting key economic variables, including asset returns and inflation. The tender, titled "Stochastic - Economic scenario generator," was issued under an open procurement method and is classified under actuarial services, with a contract value of £170,843.38. The contract period is set to commence on 7th January 2022 and extend until 6th January 2025. Tender submissions were due by 11th August 2021, with the delivery address located in London (postal code EC4A 1AB).

This procurement presents significant opportunities for businesses specializing in actuarial services and economic forecasting. Companies equipped with the capability to provide robust stochastic models and deliver regular scenario updates are particularly well-suited for this tender. Interested bidders should also consider offering additional services, such as stress testing and scenario generation based on different economic assumptions, to enhance their proposal to GAD, thereby fostering business growth in a transitioning economic landscape.

## Notice

A key part of our advice relates to, or relies on, the potential outturns for key economic variables - in particular in relation to asset returns, inflation and future interest rates. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a set of stochastic economic scenarios ("scenarios", "scenario set" or "economic scenario file"). The economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering inflation, interest rates, credit, derivatives, FX and a range of asset classes. The scenarios are used in several areas of our advice, particularly for asset liability model runs for pension schemes, and are used to examine and illustrate the potential range of possible future outcomes. We require that a set of scenarios be provided to us regularly, at least quarterly, over the period of the contract. We also required that the scenarios: i) are based on sound economic principles and methods; ii) are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date of the calibration to ensure consistency with the date at which they are used; and iii) are calibrated to reflect either the provider's own view or GAD's own house-view on the long-term outcome for key economic variables in the scenario set. GAD does not currently have a current provider of this service, though we have previously purchased one-off calibrations to support particular projects. In addition to the standard scenario files based on these principles, it is standard actuarial practice to consider other plausible assumptions and demonstrate the sensitivity of our advice to other assumptions. To inform this, we also require the ability to generate additional scenarios based on alternative views and calibration parameters and/or carry out stress testing on the scenario set. GAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an "economic scenario model" to provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to current levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to us based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the supplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us directly. However, depending on the level of capacity and capability required to maintain and run such models ourselves, GAD are interested to explore this as an additional service and tenderers are invited to disclose such service provision in their response. Tenders for must be submitted via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Failure to do so may result in the tender response not being processed or the response being automatically disqualified during the evaluation stage of the tender process.

## Key Details

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication source | Contracts Finder |
| Latest notice | https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/ff90fc5a-9c59-4bc8-8117-3ad69683b3fc |
| Notice type | Award Notice |
| Procurement type | Standard |
| Procurement category | Services |
| Procurement method | Open |
| Procurement method details | Open procedure (above threshold) |
| Tender suitability | Not specified |
| Awardee scale | Large |
| All stages | Award |

## Dates

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication date | 19 Jul 2022 |
| Submission deadline | 11 Aug 2021 |
| Future notice date | Not specified |
| Award date | 7 Jan 2022 |
| Contract period | 7 Jan 2022 - 6 Jan 2025 |
| Recurrence | Not specified |

## Values

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender value | £170,843 |
| Lots value | Not specified |
| Awards value | £170,843 |
| Contracts value | Not specified |

## Status

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender status | Complete |
| Lots status | Not specified |
| Awards status | Active |
| Contracts status | Not specified |

## Buyer

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Main buyer | GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT |
| Locality | LONDON |
| Post town | Central London |
| Postcode | EC4A 1AB |
| Country | England |
| ITL 1 | TLI London |
| ITL 2 | TLI3 Inner London - West |
| ITL 3 | TLI35 Westminster and City of London |
| Local authority | City of London |
| Electoral ward | Farringdon Without |
| Westminster constituency | Cities of London and Westminster |
| Delivery location | Not specified |

## Supplier

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Number of suppliers | 1 |
| Supplier names | MOODY'S ANALYTICS |

## CPV Codes

### Divisions

- 66 - Financial and insurance services

### Codes

- 66519600 - Actuarial services

## Release History

- 19 Jul 2022 at 15:59 - AwardUpdate - Award Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/ff90fc5a-9c59-4bc8-8117-3ad69683b3fc
- 4 Mar 2022 at 12:39 - AwardUpdate - Award Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/ff90fc5a-9c59-4bc8-8117-3ad69683b3fc
- 4 Mar 2022 at 12:33 - Award - Award Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/ff90fc5a-9c59-4bc8-8117-3ad69683b3fc

## Documents

- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/ff90fc5a-9c59-4bc8-8117-3ad69683b3fc
  19th July 2022 - Awarded contract notice on Contracts Finder
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/60a8994c-0872-4137-b840-16622b640ac4
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/9cd2111d-94c3-4b78-844d-8cb26eea8f97
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/21e57d0e-adab-45db-b200-4827c85e4a2a
  - FAQ's
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/255491e9-6cdc-4b5d-beec-209c9ff3e900
  - Invitation to tender
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/71407926-d656-4653-812b-a76f57bffb83
  - Cost template

## Provenance

This Markdown file is an alternate public rendering of the D3 Tenders contract record. The canonical page is https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-8e4f86b1-7e35-4250-918c-634212fad50f. The underlying structured data is available as OCDS JSON at https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-8e4f86b1-7e35-4250-918c-634212fad50f.json.