---
title: "CPSP 134 Update of Mathematical and Statistical Distributions Modelling of Estimates"
ocid: "ocds-b5fd17-aa8af363-8d9b-42f2-9b00-60a8db6db56f"
canonical_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-aa8af363-8d9b-42f2-9b00-60a8db6db56f"
markdown_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-aa8af363-8d9b-42f2-9b00-60a8db6db56f.md"
json_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-aa8af363-8d9b-42f2-9b00-60a8db6db56f.json"
source: "Contracts Finder"
current_stage: "Award"
buyer: "HIGHWAYS ENGLAND"
published: "2021-02-21"
---

# CPSP 134 Update of Mathematical and Statistical Distributions Modelling of Estimates

Buyer: HIGHWAYS ENGLAND  
Current stage: Award  
OCID: ocds-b5fd17-aa8af363-8d9b-42f2-9b00-60a8db6db56f

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## Summary

The procurement process involves Highways England, which is located in Birmingham, England. The contract titled "CPSP 134 Update of Mathematical and Statistical Distributions Modelling of Estimates" falls under the services category, specifically focusing on cost calculation and monitoring. The procurement method adopted is selective, functioning as a call-off from a framework agreement. The contract period commenced on 11 January 2021 and concludes on 31 March 2021, having been awarded following the tender period that ended on 15 December 2020.

This tender presents significant growth opportunities for businesses that specialise in cost estimation, mathematical modelling, or risk analysis within the construction and infrastructure sectors. Companies that are adept at utilising Monte Carlo simulations and are familiar with current best practices in statistical analysis would be particularly well-suited to compete for this contract. Furthermore, the inclusion of small and medium-sized enterprises in the eligibility criteria encourages the participation of innovative firms looking to establish a foothold in public procurement.

## Notice

Highways projects are highly complex and are delivered in a dynamic environment that is constantly exposed to different risks and uncertainties that need to be understood by the various stakeholders involved. There are a plethora of risks and uncertainty due to which the actual cost exceeds the budgeted / estimated amount. If the RIS funding is less than the actual cost of the RIS, Highways England are either unable to meet their efficiency targets or have to borrow more from the government. This results in loss of confidence in Highways England's ability and puts future RIS funding at risk. Hence, it is very important to have robust cost estimates taking into account comprehensive foreseeable risks and uncertainties. The uptake of mathematical models in risk/uncertainty and contingency analysis of project costs in the Highways construction industry has been slow as compared to other industries. Highways England since 2007 have been using mathematical models and Monte Carlo simulations to produce probabilistic range estimates. The estimating process has not seen any fundamental change since 2007. There is a need to review the current mathematical model deployed in delivering estimates to identify any gaps and update it to bring it abreast of latest developments in mathematical modelling application to estimating. 2.2 Scope The main aim of this project is to incorporate use of explicit, empirically mathematical and statistical distributions or models of cost elements to produce more realistic forecasts of individual project estimates by reducing what has been termed project optimism bias i.e. the demonstrated systematic tendency of project appraisals and estimates to be overly optimistic. Highways England wishes to review existing approach and update the process of simulation based cost estimation using Monte Carlo techniques and mathematical modelling in line with current best practice used in cost estimation. The scope will include but not limited to - Review of current mathematical and statistical distribution models used in Highways England estimates - Production of a report on what improvements are required to align Highways England estimating with current mathematical & statistical analysis best practice in cost estimation - Identify a model and associated process / procedural documents to implement the updated and revised approach for the review and approval of Highways England. This may include: o Assessment of the potential use of a modified RET to produce and probabilistic output and EMV for each individual cost element o Review and assessment of the appropriate correlation between series / cost elements and update of RET Determine the effect of correlations or interdependencies between cost elements on the estimate of the total project costs o Review of the levels at which simulation is best to take place o Identification of any gaps and proposals to address these areas - produce report for issue to EM / HoCP o The actions requi

## Key Details

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication source | Contracts Finder |
| Latest notice | https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/022cb942-a114-4a24-be06-02d4147c6562 |
| Notice type | Award Notice |
| Procurement type | Framework |
| Procurement category | Services |
| Procurement method | Selective |
| Procurement method details | Call-off from a framework agreement |
| Tender suitability | SME |
| Awardee scale | Large |
| All stages | Award |

## Dates

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication date | 21 Feb 2021 |
| Submission deadline | 15 Dec 2020 |
| Future notice date | Not specified |
| Award date | 11 Jan 2021 |
| Contract period | 11 Jan 2021 - 31 Mar 2021 |
| Recurrence | Not specified |

## Values

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender value | £53,757 |
| Lots value | Not specified |
| Awards value | £53,757 |
| Contracts value | Not specified |

## Status

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender status | Complete |
| Lots status | Not specified |
| Awards status | Active |
| Contracts status | Not specified |

## Buyer

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Main buyer | HIGHWAYS ENGLAND |
| Locality | BIRMINGHAM |
| Post town | Birmingham |
| Postcode | B1 1RN |
| Country | England |
| ITL 1 | TLG West Midlands (England) |
| ITL 2 | TLG3 West Midlands |
| ITL 3 | TLG31 Birmingham |
| Local authority | Birmingham |
| Electoral ward | Ladywood |
| Westminster constituency | Birmingham Ladywood |
| Delivery location | Not specified |

## Supplier

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Number of suppliers | 1 |
| Supplier names | BENCHMARK ESTIMATING |

## CPV Codes

### Divisions

- 71 - Architectural, construction, engineering and inspection services

### Codes

- 71244000 - Calculation of costs, monitoring of costs

## Release History

- 21 Feb 2021 at 13:52 - Award - Award Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/022cb942-a114-4a24-be06-02d4147c6562

## Documents

- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/022cb942-a114-4a24-be06-02d4147c6562
  21st February 2021 - Awarded contract notice on Contracts Finder
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/1f5b69a4-0167-47db-be8a-42fc03c55571
  n/a

## Provenance

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