---
title: "Estimating the future prices and scale of engineered GGRs in Voluntary Carbon Markets"
ocid: "ocds-b5fd17-d2edb989-643f-4118-bc1c-1bbc2aa4e5b3"
canonical_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-d2edb989-643f-4118-bc1c-1bbc2aa4e5b3"
markdown_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-d2edb989-643f-4118-bc1c-1bbc2aa4e5b3.md"
json_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-d2edb989-643f-4118-bc1c-1bbc2aa4e5b3.json"
source: "Contracts Finder"
current_stage: "Award"
buyer: "DESNZ"
published: "2025-02-19"
---

# Estimating the future prices and scale of engineered GGRs in Voluntary Carbon Markets

Buyer: DESNZ  
Current stage: Award  
OCID: ocds-b5fd17-d2edb989-643f-4118-bc1c-1bbc2aa4e5b3

[View canonical contract page](https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-d2edb989-643f-4118-bc1c-1bbc2aa4e5b3)  
[Download OCDS JSON](https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-d2edb989-643f-4118-bc1c-1bbc2aa4e5b3.json)

## Summary

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) has awarded a contract for the project titled "Estimating the future prices and scale of engineered GGRs in Voluntary Carbon Markets". The procurement is categorised under "Research and development consultancy services" (CPV code 73200000). DESNZ is located at UK Shared Business Services, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, England. The contract, valued at £56,700, spans from 7th February 2025 to 6th July 2025, with the award published on 19th February 2025. The procurement followed an open procedure and is now in the 'Award' stage, with the winning bidder being Allied Crowds Limited from Richmond, Greater London.

This tender presents significant opportunities for businesses specialising in economic modelling and forecasting, specifically related to engineered Greenhouse Gas Removals (GGRs) in Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCMs). Organisations with expertise in these areas, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and voluntary, community and social enterprises (VCSEs), are well-suited to compete. The focus on detailed forecasting over yearly intervals from 2030 to 2050 supports strategic planning and decision-making, thereby benefiting suppliers who can deliver comprehensive and precise modelling and analysis services. This can help businesses expand their market presence while contributing to the UK's net zero goals.

## Notice

This project will forecast the future prices and scale of engineered Greenhouse Gas Removals (GGRs) in Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCMs) to strengthen internal analysis in DESNZ and inform the design of the GGR Business Model, including how it can best complement integration of GGRs into the UK Emission Trading System (ETS). External VCM forecasts, which DESNZ currently relies on for internal analysis, have various limitations, including a lack of transparency in their assumptions and few attempts to isolate the price of engineered removals specifically, amongst others. We are interested in tenders that would deploy economic modelling to provide a probabilistic assessment of scenarios & assumptions that will affect the prices and volumes of engineered GGRs in VCM i.e. what will participants value most when purchasing a credit in the future and how will this impact volume sold/price? This modelling should also be preceded by literature reviews to highlight the existing landscape of engineered GGRs in VCMs. Modelling should consider both the demand and supply side of the market for engineered GGR credits to estimate the likely price and quantity of engineered GGR credits over time (from 2030 to 2050 in yearly intervals). Demand forecasts could estimate the Marginal Willingness to Pay curves of corporate buyers of engineered GGR credits. Supply forecasts could estimate Marginal Cost curves for different GGR technologies. DESNZ could use these improved forecasts to refine their internal analysis on exchequer funding costs. More accurate forecasts could also help inform decision-making on the GGR Business Model i.e. establishing optimal levels for any price floor and volume support. While research is unlikely to conclude in time for the next BM update, findings would help inform later updates, future iterations of the Business Model and strengthen our bargaining position in negotiations, hence the benefit of doing this research as early as possible. Outputs of

## Key Details

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication source | Contracts Finder |
| Latest notice | https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/e4c558b5-e977-46df-b663-3095549a97a3 |
| Notice type | Award Notice |
| Procurement type | Standard |
| Procurement category | Services |
| Procurement method | Open |
| Procurement method details | Open procedure (below threshold) |
| Tender suitability | SME, VCSE |
| Awardee scale | SME |
| All stages | Tender, Award |

## Dates

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication date | 19 Feb 2025 |
| Submission deadline | 13 Dec 2024 |
| Future notice date | Not specified |
| Award date | 12 Feb 2025 |
| Contract period | 7 Feb 2025 - 6 Jul 2025 |
| Recurrence | Not specified |

## Values

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender value | £56,700 |
| Lots value | Not specified |
| Awards value | £56,700 |
| Contracts value | Not specified |

## Status

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender status | Complete |
| Lots status | Not specified |
| Awards status | Active |
| Contracts status | Not specified |

## Buyer

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Main buyer | DESNZ |
| Locality | SWINDON |
| Post town | Swindon |
| Postcode | SN2 1FF |
| Country | England |
| ITL 1 | TLK South West (England) |
| ITL 2 | TLK7 Gloucestershire and Wiltshire |
| ITL 3 | TLK71 Swindon |
| Local authority | Swindon |
| Electoral ward | Rodbourne Cheney |
| Westminster constituency | Swindon North |
| Delivery location | Not specified |

## Supplier

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Number of suppliers | 1 |
| Supplier names | ALLIED CROWDS |

## CPV Codes

### Divisions

- 73 - Research and development services and related consultancy services

### Codes

- 73200000 - Research and development consultancy services

## Release History

- 19 Feb 2025 at 11:06 - Award - Award Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/e4c558b5-e977-46df-b663-3095549a97a3
- 5 Dec 2024 at 09:13 - TenderAmendment - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/be4dcc4b-cd67-4e99-be05-4fd2752ae03e
- 22 Nov 2024 at 14:17 - Tender - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/be4dcc4b-cd67-4e99-be05-4fd2752ae03e

## Documents

- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/e4c558b5-e977-46df-b663-3095549a97a3
  19th February 2025 - Awarded contract notice on Contracts Finder
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/be4dcc4b-cd67-4e99-be05-4fd2752ae03e
  5th December 2024 - Opportunity notice on Contracts Finder
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/3afc75c3-718a-49e4-8fc1-cb1ba33f7307
  n/a
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/09464de7-0b38-4403-813e-2f4d8d821aa7
  n/a
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/3762783b-538e-4aa3-9298-20dac6fe08a4
  n/a
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/59042268-6351-4c71-b293-30e1254caae0
  n/a
- https://beisgroup.ukp.app.jaggaer.com/
  Jaggaer eSourcing Portal
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/21630659-c294-4864-9d78-22fb1eea0efb
  n/a

## Notice URLs

- http://www.uksbs.co.uk

## Provenance

This Markdown file is an alternate public rendering of the D3 Tenders contract record. The canonical page is https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-d2edb989-643f-4118-bc1c-1bbc2aa4e5b3. The underlying structured data is available as OCDS JSON at https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-d2edb989-643f-4118-bc1c-1bbc2aa4e5b3.json.