---
title: "PS21196 - Bayesian Synthetic Population Algorithm Development, for National Buildings Model"
ocid: "ocds-b5fd17-ef3d8adc-7b82-475a-b713-4465b0cebb3a"
canonical_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-ef3d8adc-7b82-475a-b713-4465b0cebb3a"
markdown_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-ef3d8adc-7b82-475a-b713-4465b0cebb3a.md"
json_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-ef3d8adc-7b82-475a-b713-4465b0cebb3a.json"
source: "Contracts Finder"
current_stage: "Award"
buyer: "UK SHARED BUSINESS SERVICES LIMITED"
published: "2022-01-20"
---

# PS21196 - Bayesian Synthetic Population Algorithm Development, for National Buildings Model

Buyer: UK SHARED BUSINESS SERVICES LIMITED  
Current stage: Award  
OCID: ocds-b5fd17-ef3d8adc-7b82-475a-b713-4465b0cebb3a

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## Summary

The UK Shared Business Services Limited is the buying organisation responsible for the recent procurement process titled "PS21196 - Bayesian Synthetic Population Algorithm Development, for National Buildings Model". This contract falls within the services category, specifically research and development consultancy services. The procurement has been officially awarded, with an award value of £49,375, and the contract period is set from 29 November 2021 to 31 March 2022. The relevant procurement method was a selective tender, following a mini-competition under the Crown Commercial Services Research Marketplace dynamic purchasing system. The procurement process concluded with the award notice published on 6 January 2022.

This tender presents growth opportunities for businesses specialising in data analysis, statistical inference, and software development, particularly those familiar with Bayesian methods. Companies capable of developing synthetic data generators and experienced in the use of programming languages like Python may find this contract particularly suited to their expertise. Given the focus on non-domestic building energy use, businesses involved in research and development in environmental studies or related fields should consider competing for future opportunities of a similar nature that may arise from this project.

## Notice

***** THIS IS AN AWARD NOTICE, NOT A CALL FOR COMPETITION ***** This procurement is being concluded following a mini competition under the RM6018 - Crown Commercial Services Research Marketplace DPS This Invitation to Tender aims to procure, on behalf of the BEIS Secretary of State, an implemented methodology for producing synthetic population sample data from multiple overlapping data sources, relating to non-domestic buildings' energy use in the UK. The BEIS National Buildings Model (NBM) makes use of disclosive property survey data to represent the diverse building population of the UK. While data of this type is richly detailed and necessary for building physics simulation, the sensitivity and relatively small sample sizes present a dual challenge. Data protection compliance requires that the "stock" datasets derived from surveys are not published, preventing external replication of BEIS analysis even once the NBM itself is published. Simultaneously, BEIS wishes to reconcile the weighted survey data with other trusted information that has been collected on the same population. These alternative data sources are diverse, from national aggregate statistics to meter-point data collected for most individual UK properties. We propose that a synthetic dataset can resolve both issues. Synthetic data generators are algorithms for condensing the important properties of a dataset into a set of cross-correlations (a modelled distribution of traits). From this, a new "sample" can be drawn which preserves the key relationships we wish to infer from the original data, while scrambling everything else. Applied to a single dataset, this can ensure that private information is not disclosed, while maintaining the format of a detailed survey. The synthetic data concept can be extended, producing a single generating algorithm from multiple otherwise incompatible datasets. The resulting "samples" would be a population of imaginary building records which are nonetheless collectively consistent with everything we (think we) know about the true population. This project will procure expert assistance in the creation of this generating algorithm. The scope will be limited to non-domestic buildings energy use, but the approach taken is expected to be eventually extended to cover domestic buildings (which have their own unique data inputs) and potentially other domains as well. Therefore, flexibility and modularisation are important factors in the implementation. The model will be developed and implemented in an appropriate programming language (Python 3 is preferred for compatibility with the NBM, but tenderers may make a case for alternatives, such as R, if they think it necessary). Development will be version controlled using Git. The contractor will therefore need expertise in both software development and statistical inference/machine learning. Bayesian procedures have featured heavily in the exploratory work conducted so far (see below).

## Key Details

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication source | Contracts Finder |
| Latest notice | https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/8ed62523-4148-43db-b6c6-26869d194a61 |
| Notice type | Award Notice |
| Procurement type | Dynamic |
| Procurement category | Services |
| Procurement method | Selective |
| Procurement method details | Call-off from a dynamic purchasing system |
| Tender suitability | SME |
| Awardee scale | SME |
| All stages | Award |

## Dates

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication date | 20 Jan 2022 |
| Submission deadline | 3 Nov 2021 |
| Future notice date | Not specified |
| Award date | 7 Dec 2021 |
| Contract period | 29 Nov 2021 - 31 Mar 2022 |
| Recurrence | Not specified |

## Values

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender value | £49,375 |
| Lots value | Not specified |
| Awards value | £49,375 |
| Contracts value | Not specified |

## Status

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender status | Complete |
| Lots status | Not specified |
| Awards status | Active |
| Contracts status | Not specified |

## Buyer

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Main buyer | UK SHARED BUSINESS SERVICES LIMITED |
| Locality | SWINDON |
| Post town | Swindon |
| Postcode | SN2 1FL |
| Country | England |
| ITL 1 | TLK South West (England) |
| ITL 2 | TLK7 Gloucestershire and Wiltshire |
| ITL 3 | TLK71 Swindon |
| Local authority | Swindon |
| Electoral ward | Rodbourne Cheney |
| Westminster constituency | Swindon North |
| Delivery location | Not specified |

## Supplier

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Number of suppliers | 1 |
| Supplier names | RED SCIENTIFIC |

## CPV Codes

### Divisions

- 73 - Research and development services and related consultancy services
- 79 - Business services: law, marketing, consulting, recruitment, printing and security

### Codes

- 73200000 - Research and development consultancy services
- 79300000 - Market and economic research; polling and statistics

## Release History

- 20 Jan 2022 at 14:52 - AwardUpdate - Award Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/8ed62523-4148-43db-b6c6-26869d194a61
- 6 Jan 2022 at 17:21 - Award - Award Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/8ed62523-4148-43db-b6c6-26869d194a61

## Documents

- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/8ed62523-4148-43db-b6c6-26869d194a61
  20th January 2022 - Awarded contract notice on Contracts Finder
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/47a0a410-f71f-4002-b86d-6d552100ab67
  PS21196 - RM6018-Letter-of-Appointment - Countersigned_Redactedv1
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/4662db9c-f78a-4dbb-9817-26e08c80290b
  PS21196 - RM6018-Call-Off-Contract-Terms - Countersigned_Redactedv1

## Provenance

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