--- title: "Government Actuary's Department - Economic Scenarios" ocid: "ocds-b5fd17-f6ea70e2-ded6-41bc-889f-a440abed7893" canonical_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-f6ea70e2-ded6-41bc-889f-a440abed7893" markdown_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-f6ea70e2-ded6-41bc-889f-a440abed7893.md" json_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-f6ea70e2-ded6-41bc-889f-a440abed7893.json" source: "Contracts Finder" current_stage: "Tender" buyer: "GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT" published: "2023-12-07" --- # Government Actuary's Department - Economic Scenarios Buyer: GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT Current stage: Tender OCID: ocds-b5fd17-f6ea70e2-ded6-41bc-889f-a440abed7893 [View canonical contract page](https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-f6ea70e2-ded6-41bc-889f-a440abed7893) [Download OCDS JSON](https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-f6ea70e2-ded6-41bc-889f-a440abed7893.json) ## Summary The Government Actuary's Department is seeking a provider for a stochastic real-world economic scenario set. This procurement opportunity falls under financial and insurance services category. The contract period starts on 19th February 2024 and ends on 18th February 2025. The tender deadline is 15th December 2023. The tendering process uses an open procedure below threshold with a total contract value of £5000 GBP. The buyer is the Government Actuary Department based in London, England. This tender presents an opportunity for businesses in the financial and insurance services sector to provide a scenario set for economic forecasting. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are particularly encouraged to compete for this contract. The process involves submitting tenders via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Businesses capable of providing stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios and inflation measures for UK retail investors are well-suited for this opportunity. The contract requires an initial scenario set by 31st December 2023 and subsequent optional sets post that date based on client needs. ## Notice The Government Actuary's Department ('GAD') is a non-ministerial Government department with a mission to improve the stewardship of public sector finances by supporting effective decision-making and robust financial reporting through actuarial analysis, modelling and advice. We provide actuarial solutions including financial risk analysis, modelling and advice to support the UK public sector. We apply the actuarial profession's technical skills, consultancy discipline, high standards of professionalism and industry sector knowledge to solve financial challenges faced by the UK public sector. GAD is currently advising a client who requires analysis of future asset and liability outcomes. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a stochastic real-world economic scenario set ("scenario set" or "economic scenario file"). The economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering investment returns for a range of asset classes, as well as inflation measures, for a retail investor in the UK. GAD already receives quarterly scenario sets from our regular projection provider and this contract is a one-off exercise to supplement those projections, to help us test the sensitivity of our analysis to the selected scenarios. While the focus of this work is to satisfy the requirements of a single client, we reserve the right to use any scenario sets provided to us as part of this contract in work for other clients where we deem it to be applicable. We require an initial scenario set calibrated with an effective date as at or before 31 December 2023 and delivered as soon as possible after the tender is awarded. This calibration should be based on standard assumptions that reflect the provider's own views. Based on this scenario set and subsequent engagement between the supplier, GAD and the client, additional scenarios set may be required. Depending on the views of the client, the potential outcomes include: * No additional scenario sets are required. * One or more additional scenario sets, which reflect the provider's own views, are required. * One or more additional scenario sets, adjusted in consultation with GAD and the client, are required. These additional scenario sets will be calibrated with an effective date as at or after 31 December 2023. These additional scenario sets will be covered under this contract (ie separate procurement exercises will not be conducted). Based on our current timelines, GAD expect we will only require one additional scenario set, if any additional scenario sets are required. Tenders for must be submitted via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Failure to do so may result in the tender response not being processed or the response being automatically disqualified during the evaluation stage of the tender process ## Key Details | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Publication source | Contracts Finder | | Latest notice | https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/263e3f84-ac7e-4682-8b99-13dbfc9fd1b1 | | Notice type | Tender Notice | | Procurement type | Standard | | Procurement category | Services | | Procurement method | Open | | Procurement method details | Open procedure (below threshold) | | Tender suitability | SME | | Awardee scale | Not specified | | All stages | Tender | ## Dates | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Publication date | 7 Dec 2023 | | Submission deadline | 15 Dec 2023 | | Future notice date | Not specified | | Award date | Not specified | | Contract period | 19 Feb 2024 - 18 Feb 2025 | | Recurrence | Not specified | ## Values | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Tender value | £5,000 | | Lots value | Not specified | | Awards value | Not specified | | Contracts value | Not specified | ## Status | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Tender status | Active | | Lots status | Not specified | | Awards status | Not specified | | Contracts status | Not specified | ## Buyer | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Main buyer | GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT | | Locality | LONDON | | Post town | East London | | Postcode | E14 4PU | | Country | England | | ITL 1 | TLI London | | ITL 2 | TLI4 Inner London - East | | ITL 3 | TLI42 Tower Hamlets | | Local authority | Tower Hamlets | | Electoral ward | Canary Wharf | | Westminster constituency | Poplar and Limehouse | | Delivery location | Not specified | ## CPV Codes ### Divisions - 66 - Financial and insurance services ### Codes - 66000000 - Financial and insurance services ## Release History - 7 Dec 2023 at 15:53 - TenderAmendment - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/263e3f84-ac7e-4682-8b99-13dbfc9fd1b1 - 17 Nov 2023 at 15:02 - Tender - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/263e3f84-ac7e-4682-8b99-13dbfc9fd1b1 ## Documents - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/263e3f84-ac7e-4682-8b99-13dbfc9fd1b1 7th December 2023 - Opportunity notice on Contracts Finder - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/186e9380-d8cc-407d-86a5-004462200b2b Invitation to Tender, including full instructions, specification and response template - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/ce48a93f-fb2d-48f4-b735-2ce043a2a2a1 Response template for commercial criteria - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/b6c22551-1e4a-4211-b891-1f4ebb9dcc6f Economic Scenarios Clarification responses ## Provenance This Markdown file is an alternate public rendering of the D3 Tenders contract record. The canonical page is https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-f6ea70e2-ded6-41bc-889f-a440abed7893. The underlying structured data is available as OCDS JSON at https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-f6ea70e2-ded6-41bc-889f-a440abed7893.json.