---
title: "Investigation into Network Rail's risk modelling, embedded risk and uncertainty on PR23"
ocid: "ocds-b5fd17-ff0473e3-afc2-4d13-9a85-7c62c1b2c883"
canonical_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-ff0473e3-afc2-4d13-9a85-7c62c1b2c883"
markdown_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-ff0473e3-afc2-4d13-9a85-7c62c1b2c883.md"
json_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-ff0473e3-afc2-4d13-9a85-7c62c1b2c883.json"
source: "Contracts Finder"
current_stage: "Award"
buyer: "OFFICE OF RAIL AND ROAD"
published: "2022-09-29"
---

# Investigation into Network Rail's risk modelling, embedded risk and uncertainty on PR23

Buyer: OFFICE OF RAIL AND ROAD  
Current stage: Award  
OCID: ocds-b5fd17-ff0473e3-afc2-4d13-9a85-7c62c1b2c883

[View canonical contract page](https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-ff0473e3-afc2-4d13-9a85-7c62c1b2c883)  
[Download OCDS JSON](https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-ff0473e3-afc2-4d13-9a85-7c62c1b2c883.json)

## Summary

The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) has awarded a contract for the investigation into Network Rail's risk modelling, focusing on embedded risks and uncertainties for the PR23 period. The procurement stage was an open procedure below the threshold. The contract, valued at £78,900, has a contract period from 3rd October 2022 to 16th January 2023. The procurement was in the services category, with a tender period ending on 7th September 2022, and was supervised by the ORR Procurement portal (BRAVO).

This public procurement opportunity is suitable for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) interested in business and management consultancy services. ORR's initiative creates prospects for companies involved in risk modelling, cost assessment, and consultancy services. Companies well-versed in statistical analysis, cost assessment, and risk factors would be ideal candidates to participate in this tender and potentially secure future business opportunities with the public sector.

## Notice

The ORR has recently begun its 2023 periodic review of Network Rail covering the five years from April 2024 to March 2029. A central element of every periodic review is a cost assessment whereby ORR determines the appropriate level of expenditure required to deliver the outputs set by funders. The System Cost & Efficiency team is part of the Capital Investment, Enhancements, Engineering and Asset Management team in ORR and is focussed on achieving an efficient cost assessment as part of the PR23 process. Network Rail delivered round 4.5 of its plan to ORR in Mar 22. This was the final top-down plan and Network Rail has now moved to round 5.0, the first stage of bottom-up planning. ORR will not receive this plan, but wishes to gain confidence that risk and uncertainty is adequately considered as part of Network Rail plans and therefore wishes to commission a study into the methodology used within Network Rail to develop its P(50) plan. Currently an Independent Reporter piece of work is being conducted into the use of unit rates within Network Rail, an overview is shown below. The output from the Independent Reporter, when combined with the outputs described in section 2.3 will provide ORR with a holistic view of risk inherent within Network Rail planning processes. Independent reporter: How are unit cost rates calculated and used Background: Unit rates, when combined with the volumes of work to be undertaken, provide the key costing information for the renewals plan. Local and national rates often exist, their selection criteria is not always documented in Network Rail's Initial Business Plan (IBP) and their limitations / applicability need to be understood. Why is this an issue: Unit rates are a key cost driver. Appropriate selection is imperative, national rates should be the composite average, as such, local rates, when combined should average out at the national rate. Should a more advantageous rate be selected for planning purposes additional (excessive) risk provision would be embedded in estimates. Plan to address: Independent Reporter commissioned What does "good" look like as an outcome for ORR: Clear understanding of the statistical significance of local / national unit rates and their applicability / selection criteria. An understanding of the adherence to these criteria, allows a quantitative view of embedded risk. Additional information: The tender exercise is being managed via the ORR Procurement portal (BRAVO). All tender clarification questions must be raised via the portal.

## Key Details

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication source | Contracts Finder |
| Latest notice | https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/0d470e1e-8093-49f9-82fb-9c009653dad2 |
| Notice type | Award Notice |
| Procurement type | Standard |
| Procurement category | Services |
| Procurement method | Open |
| Procurement method details | Open procedure (below threshold) |
| Tender suitability | SME |
| Awardee scale | SME |
| All stages | Tender, Award |

## Dates

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication date | 29 Sep 2022 |
| Submission deadline | 7 Sep 2022 |
| Future notice date | Not specified |
| Award date | 27 Sep 2022 |
| Contract period | 2 Oct 2022 - 16 Jan 2023 |
| Recurrence | Not specified |

## Values

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender value | £90,000 |
| Lots value | Not specified |
| Awards value | £78,900 |
| Contracts value | Not specified |

## Status

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender status | Complete |
| Lots status | Not specified |
| Awards status | Active |
| Contracts status | Not specified |

## Buyer

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Main buyer | OFFICE OF RAIL AND ROAD |
| Locality | LONDON |
| Post town | East London |
| Postcode | E14 4QZ |
| Country | England |
| ITL 1 | TLI London |
| ITL 2 | TLI4 Inner London - East |
| ITL 3 | TLI42 Tower Hamlets |
| Local authority | Tower Hamlets |
| Electoral ward | Canary Wharf |
| Westminster constituency | Poplar and Limehouse |
| Delivery location | Not specified |

## Supplier

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Number of suppliers | 1 |
| Supplier names | SIRIUS ANALYSIS |

## CPV Codes

### Divisions

- 79 - Business services: law, marketing, consulting, recruitment, printing and security

### Codes

- 79400000 - Business and management consultancy and related services

## Release History

- 29 Sep 2022 at 11:24 - Award - Award Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/0d470e1e-8093-49f9-82fb-9c009653dad2
- 10 Aug 2022 at 15:50 - Tender - Tender Notice - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/fa000442-54af-49ba-a6a3-72a9f62fbccc

## Documents

- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/0d470e1e-8093-49f9-82fb-9c009653dad2
  29th September 2022 - Awarded contract notice on Contracts Finder
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/fa000442-54af-49ba-a6a3-72a9f62fbccc
  10th August 2022 - Opportunity notice on Contracts Finder
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/06209948-294d-4c11-871d-dcd47aeb1ac4
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/e81e7698-a886-4658-9236-0021f598086a
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/283fac85-3f70-4b29-930b-8167b0e6d0bc
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/1515ddd9-db4a-4e4e-a94b-e56aba7d8f16
- https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/Attachment/d85edc9c-932e-410e-ab46-029c4cee09f3

## Provenance

This Markdown file is an alternate public rendering of the D3 Tenders contract record. The canonical page is https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-b5fd17-ff0473e3-afc2-4d13-9a85-7c62c1b2c883. The underlying structured data is available as OCDS JSON at https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-b5fd17-ff0473e3-afc2-4d13-9a85-7c62c1b2c883.json.