---
title: "From Local Shocks to Systemic Impacts: A Multi-hazard, Systems-based View of Physical Climate Risk"
ocid: "ocds-h6vhtk-06fb0e"
canonical_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-h6vhtk-06fb0e"
markdown_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-h6vhtk-06fb0e.md"
json_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-h6vhtk-06fb0e.json"
source: "Find A Tender Service"
current_stage: "Tender"
buyer: "Department for Energy Security & Net Zero"
published: "2026-09-16"
---

# From Local Shocks to Systemic Impacts: A Multi-hazard, Systems-based View of Physical Climate Risk

Buyer: Department for Energy Security & Net Zero  
Current stage: Tender  
OCID: ocds-h6vhtk-06fb0e

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## Summary

The Department for Energy Security & Net Zero is commissioning research and related consultancy on how physical climate shocks can become systemic risks. The work will examine cascading, compounding and contagion effects arising from hazards such as storms, flooding, drought and heat stress, with particular attention to the UK’s vulnerabilities to climate shocks in other countries. Its purpose is to support improved industry practice and inform government policy, regulation and prudential supervision. The research will be coordinated with the Financial Conduct Authority’s Climate Scenarios Sandbox and delivered in partnership with the UK Taskforce on Climate and Nature Security, with possible alignment to Climate Financial Risk Forum work. UK Shared Business Services is managing the procurement on behalf of the department. Delivery is across the United Kingdom.

The procurement has reached tender: the buyer invited offers through a below-threshold open competition. Bidders were required to submit through the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal rather than directly to the buyer. Questions were due by 30 September 2026 at 11:00, and bids by 14 October 2026 at 11:00. The contract is scheduled to run from 4 November 2026 to 26 March 2027. The estimated value is £100,000 excluding VAT and £120,000 including VAT. There is one lot. The contract will be awarded to the most advantageous submitted tender, with the full evaluation criteria set out in the mini competition document. Electronic submission was permitted, and the opportunity was identified as below the relevant threshold.

This opportunity suits research organisations, universities, consultancies and specialist climate-risk teams able to deliver rigorous analysis of physical climate risk and its wider economic and financial consequences. Relevant capability includes climate scenario analysis, assessment of hazard exposure, modelling or interpretation of cascading and compounding impacts, and understanding of systemic risk, financial stability and international dependencies affecting the UK. Suppliers should be able to translate research into practical findings for industry, regulators, government policy and prudential supervision. Experience working across climate, nature, economics, finance or financial regulation would be valuable, particularly where evidence must inform scenario development or stress-testing approaches. The requirement is expressly suitable for small and medium-sized enterprises and voluntary, community or social enterprises, making it accessible to specialist providers as well as larger research teams.

## Notice

Please provide a detailed description of the notice you are adding: The final date and time for the submission of bids is Wednesday, 14th October 2026 at 11:00 DO NOT apply directly to the buyer. All tender information MUST be submitted through the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal. Brief Description of Requirement It is broadly recognised that physical climate risk and related nature dependencies can pose risks to economic and financial stability. Governments and regulators in the UK and internationally have recognised this and continue to take action to address underlying vulnerabilities and support wider systemic resilience. Notwithstanding the clear need for accelerated global action, there remains significant uncertainties in appraising the future economic and financial implications of physical risk meaning market practices, government policy and regulation, may not be optimised (within the bounds of wider limitations and mandates) to align with climate-resilient pathways. Climate scenario analysis is a key tool to inform approaches to climate risk management. But due to the complexity and heterogeneity of climate risk, academic and industry evidence has highlighted that current mainstream scenarios - whilst highly sophisticated - may not capture all potential physical risk due to limited data availability and modelling constraints. Furthermore, whilst reference scenarios continue to be enhanced, some potential hazard exposures and highly complex systems dynamics may not be well suited to quantification through empirically calibrated, top-down damage functions, which provide estimates for economic damages in climate scenarios. There is, therefore, a need to investigate the potential for complementary methodologies to support more holistic approaches to physical risk appraisal and management. This is the focus of this research project. Specifically, research will focus on how local physical climate shocks (e.g. storms, flooding, droughts, heat stress) can - through cascading, compounding, and contagion effects - become systemic risks. There will be a particular focus on furthering understanding of UK vulnerabilities to climate shocks in other countries, with the objective of supporting improvements to industry practices and providing insights for government policy, regulation, and prudential supervision. This research project will be delivered in coordination with the Financial Conduct Authority's Climate Scenarios Sandbox , with potential for insights generated through the sandbox to provide practical evidence regarding the utility of research outputs. The project will also be delivered in partnership with the recently established UK Taskforce on Climate and Nature Security and will, where possible, be aligned with ongoing work on high-impact climate possibilities at the Climate Financial Risk Forum. Please ensure you review all attached information to ensure a full understanding of this requirement. All attachments can be found with the Supplier Attachments tab within the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal. This contract will be awarded based on the evaluation criteria as set out in the ITQ document. How to Apply UK Shared Business Services Ltd (UK SBS) will be using the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal for this procurement. To register on the Jaggaer eSourcing portal please use the link https://beisgroup.ukp.app.jaggaer.com/ and follow the instructions to register as a supplier. If you are already registered on the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal and wish to participate in this procurement, please use the link: https://beisgroup.ukp.app.jaggaer.com/. Once you are logged into the system you will be able to locate the Procurement you wish to leave a bid on by clicking the ITTs Open to All Suppliers and searching for the reference number PS26261. DO NOT APPLY DIRECTLY TO BUYER All submissions will be assessed in accordance with the Public Procurement Regulations that apply to this opportunity. Responses must be received by the date and time in the tender documentation; responses received outside of the deadline or not sent via the Jaggaer eSourcing portal will not be accepted or considered by the Contracting Authority further for this opportunity, unless a system outage is experienced, to which the Contracting Authority will advise upon accordingly. Interested organisations should ensure that they allow a sufficiency of time, prior to the deadline to allow all sections to be completed in full and any attachments to be uploaded. As a user of the Jaggaer eSourcing Portal you will have access to the Jaggaer messaging service which facilitates all messages sent to you and from you, as well as other messages and updates in relation to any specific tender event. Please note that any and all information secured outside of the messaging service, shall have no Legal Standing, merit or worth and should not be relied upon by any organisation submitting a tender response. Please note it is your organisations responsibility to access these messages on a regular basis to ensure you have sight of all relevant information applicable to this opportunity. The Contracting Authority expressly reserves the right: i. not to award any contract as a result of the procurement process commenced by publication of this notice; and ii. to make whatever changes it may see fit to the content and structure of the procurement; and under no circumstances as part of your organisations participation in this opportunity, will the Contracting Authority be liable for any costs incurred by any organisation as a result. If the Contracting Authority decides to enter into a contract with any successful organisation(s), this does not mean that there is any guarantee of subsequent contracts being awarded. Any expenditure, work or effort undertaken prior to contract award is accordingly a matter solely for the commercial judgement of your organisation in doing so. About UK Shared Business Services UK Shared Business Services Ltd (UK SBS) brings a commercial attitude to the public sector; helping our contracting authorities to improve efficiency, generate savings and modernise. Where UK SBS is not named as the Contracting Authority within the documentation, UK SBS will be acting as an agent on behalf of the Contracting Authority. Our broad range of expert services is shared by our customers. This allows our customers the freedom to focus resources on core activities; innovating and transforming their own organisations. For full details of our partner base please review the following link: http://www.uksbs.co.uk/services/procure/contracts/Pages/default.aspx Description1: Jaggaer eSourcing Portal Link1: (URL) https://beisgroup.ukp.app.jaggaer.com/

## Key Details

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication source | Find A Tender Service |
| Latest notice | https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/087728-2026 |
| Notice type | UK4 - Tender Notice |
| Procurement type | Standard |
| Procurement category | Services |
| Procurement method | Open |
| Procurement method details | Below threshold - open competition |
| Tender suitability | SME, VCSE |
| Awardee scale | Not specified |
| All stages | Tender |

## Dates

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Publication date | 16 Sep 2026 |
| Submission deadline | 14 Oct 2026 |
| Future notice date | Not specified |
| Award date | Not specified |
| Contract period | 4 Nov 2026 - 26 Mar 2027 |
| Recurrence | Not specified |

## Values

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender value | £100,000 |
| Lots value | £100,000 |
| Awards value | Not specified |
| Contracts value | Not specified |

## Status

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Tender status | Active |
| Lots status | Active |
| Awards status | Not specified |
| Contracts status | Not specified |

## Buyer

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Main buyer | Department for Energy Security & Net Zero |
| Locality | LONDON |
| Postcode area | South West London |
| Postcode | SW1A 2HP |
| Country | England |
| ITL 1 | TLI London |
| ITL 2 | TLI3 Inner London - West |
| ITL 3 | TLI35 Westminster and City of London |
| Local authority | Westminster |
| Electoral ward | St James's |
| Westminster constituency | Cities of London and Westminster |
| Delivery location | Not specified |

## CPV Codes

### Divisions

- 73 - Research and development services and related consultancy services

### Codes

- 73000000 - Research and development services and related consultancy services

## Release History

- 16 Sep 2026 at 12:43 - Tender - UK4 - Tender Notice - https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/087728-2026

## Documents

- https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/087728-2026
  16th September 2026 - Tender notice on Find a Tender

## Notice URLs

- http://www.uksbs.co.uk/services/procure/contracts/Pages/default.aspx
- https://beisgroup.ukp.app.jaggaer.com/
- https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2023/54/contents

## Provenance

This Markdown file is an alternate public rendering of the D3 Tenders contract record. The canonical page is https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-h6vhtk-06fb0e. The underlying structured data is available as OCDS JSON at https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-h6vhtk-06fb0e.json.