--- title: "Developing a mathematical modelling proof of concept for children looked after in Wales" ocid: "ocds-kuma6s-128107" canonical_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-kuma6s-128107" markdown_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-kuma6s-128107.md" json_url: "https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-kuma6s-128107.json" source: "Sell2Wales" current_stage: "Award" buyer: "SOCIAL CARE WALES" published: "2023-03-29" --- # Developing a mathematical modelling proof of concept for children looked after in Wales Buyer: SOCIAL CARE WALES Current stage: Award OCID: ocds-kuma6s-128107 [View canonical contract page](https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-kuma6s-128107) [Download OCDS JSON](https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-kuma6s-128107.json) ## Summary Social Care Wales is seeking to develop a proof of concept for mathematical modelling focused on children looked after in Wales. The aim is to reduce the number of children in care by understanding key interactions affecting this population. The tender, titled "Developing a mathematical modelling proof of concept for children looked after in Wales", falls under the services category and is in the award stage. The procurement process began on January 12, 2023. The buying organisation is located in Cardiff and can be contacted at +44 3003033444. This tender presents lucrative opportunities for businesses experienced in research services, research and development consultancy, social research, higher education, and health and social work services. The project involves assessing data, developing predictive models, and producing reports in both Welsh and English. Businesses capable of providing innovative solutions and demonstrating expertise in predictive modelling techniques would be well-suited to compete for this opportunity. ## Notice What is required / 'The Requirements'Reducing the number of children who are looked after in Wales remains a priority for Welsh Government. Rates in Wales are the highest in the UK . Entering the care system is known to have a detrimental effect on longer term outcomes for children in terms of educational attainment, health, employment, homelessness and criminal justice. Despite higher numbers of children in care, there is variation across Wales. This may be linked to a number of different interactions including, safeguarding practice, deprivation and parental factors.Understanding these interactions and how they might affect the looked after population and the likelihood of entry to the care system would provide a valuable source of information and insight into the dynamics of the care system that could aid the safe reduction of the children looked after population in Wales. Modelling could also provide a mechanism to test preventative measures to sustain reduction or reduce entry to the care system in Wales.We wish to work with an experienced supplier or consortia to develop predictive and prescriptive models for looked after children in Wales. Data on children looked after in Wales is reasonably mature with person-based data having been collected for 20 years. In addition to this, a great amount of research has been collected on the wider determinants of care in the UK and beyond.We require the following:1 An assessment of available data, research and evidence on children looked after in Wales and elsewhere.2 A review of available modelling techniques with an appraisal of their suitability for developing a model for children looked after in Wales.3 A functional proof of concept of a mathematical data model for children looked after in Wales.4 A working representation of the prototype model developed in conjunction with Social Care Wales and partners on the National social care data portal.5 Recommendations for scaling the project into beta and production versions.Aims and objectives1 To develop novel techniques to better understand the dynamics of the children looked after system in Wales with the ambition of using the insight provided to improve outcomes for children looked after and safely reduce numbers of children looked after.2 To better understand the wider determinants of becoming looked after and how these factors interact.3 To continue to refine our modelling approaches to provide better predictive and prescriptive insight.4 To use the learning from this work and apply it to other areas of care and support.OutputsIt is expected that the supplier will:a) Produce a functional proof of concept model for children looked after in Wales.b) Work with Social Care Wales to demonstrate the feasibility of the model on the National social care data portal for Wales.c) Produce a report in both Welsh and English containing a write up of your work. This should include:i. information on the approach to developing the model.ii. information on how the model has been tested to ensure that it produces meaningful outputs that conform to expectations.iii. information on the vulnerabilities and limitations of the model and how these may be improved or overcome.iv. recommendations for progression to beta and production versions of the model.Please see specification for more detail ## Key Details | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Publication source | Sell2Wales | | Latest notice | https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/search/search_switch.aspx?ID=128107 | | Notice type | S2W Notice - Website Contract Award Notice | | Procurement type | Standard | | Procurement category | Services | | Procurement method | Open | | Procurement method details | Not specified | | Tender suitability | Not specified | | Awardee scale | Not specified | | All stages | Tender, Award | ## Dates | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Publication date | 29 Mar 2023 | | Submission deadline | 2 Feb 2023 | | Future notice date | Not specified | | Award date | 8 Mar 2023 | | Contract period | Not specified | | Recurrence | Not specified | ## Values | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Tender value | Not specified | | Lots value | Not specified | | Awards value | Not specified | | Contracts value | Not specified | ## Status | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Tender status | Not specified | | Lots status | Not specified | | Awards status | Not specified | | Contracts status | Active | ## Buyer | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Main buyer | SOCIAL CARE WALES | | Locality | CARDIFF | | Post town | Cardiff | | Postcode | CF10 1EW | | Country | Wales | | ITL 1 | TLL Wales | | ITL 2 | TLL5 South East Wales | | ITL 3 | TLL52 Cardiff and Vale of Glamorgan | | Local authority | Cardiff | | Electoral ward | Cathays | | Westminster constituency | Cardiff South and Penarth | | Delivery location | Not specified | ## Supplier | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Number of suppliers | 1 | | Supplier names | ALMA ECONOMICS | ## CPV Codes ### Divisions - 73 - Research and development services and related consultancy services - 79 - Business services: law, marketing, consulting, recruitment, printing and security - 80 - Education and training services - 85 - Health and social work services ### Codes - 73110000 - Research services - 73200000 - Research and development consultancy services - 79315000 - Social research services - 80300000 - Higher education services - 85000000 - Health and social work services ## Release History - 29 Mar 2023 at 15:53 - Award - S2W Notice - Website Contract Award Notice - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/search/search_switch.aspx?ID=128107 - 12 Jan 2023 at 16:55 - Tender - S2W Notice - Website Invitation to Tender Notice - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/search/search_switch.aspx?ID=128107 ## Documents - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=17 12th January 2023 - Atodiad 8 - Datganiad o Fwriad Strategol ar gyfer data gofal cymdeithasol yng Nghymru - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=18 12th January 2023 - Appendix 8 - Statement of Strategic Intent for social care data in Wales - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=19 12th January 2023 - Social Care Wales - Terms and Conditions - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=11 12th January 2023 - Atodiad 5 - Canllawiau brandio Gofal Cymdeithasol Cymru - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=12 12th January 2023 - Appendix 5 - Social Care Wales's branding guidelines - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=13 12th January 2023 - Atodiad 6 - Ffurf y Tendr - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=14 12th January 2023 - Appendix 6 - Form of Tender - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=15 12th January 2023 - Atodiad 7 - Dull strategol o ymdrin a data gofal cymdeithasol yng Nghymru - Adroddiad Darganfod - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=16 12th January 2023 - Appendix 7 - A strategic approach to social care data in Wales - Discovery Report - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=9 12th January 2023 - Atodiad 4 - Canllawiau ton llais Gofal Cymdeithasol Cymru - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=10 12th January 2023 - Appendix 4 - Social Care Wales's tone of voice guidelines - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=8 12th January 2023 - Appendix 3 - Financial / Pricing Response Document - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=5 12th January 2023 - Atodiad 2 - Dogfen Ymateb Materion Technegol / Ansawdd - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=6 12th January 2023 - Appendix 2 - Technical / Quality Response Document - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=7 12th January 2023 - Atodiad 3 - Dogfen Ymateb Materion Ariannol / Prisio - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=3 12th January 2023 - Atodiad 1 - Taflen Glawr - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=4 12th January 2023 - Appendix 1 - Cover Sheet - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=1 12th January 2023 - Invitation to tender and Specification - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales/Notice/Download/DocumentDownload.aspx?id=JAN423984&idx=2 12th January 2023 - Manyleb a Gwahoddiad i Dendro ## Notice URLs - http://www.socialcare.wales - https://www.sell2wales.gov.wales ## Provenance This Markdown file is an alternate public rendering of the D3 Tenders contract record. The canonical page is https://d3tenders.com/contract/?ocid=ocds-kuma6s-128107. The underlying structured data is available as OCDS JSON at https://d3tenders.com/contract/ocds-kuma6s-128107.json.