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Quantifying the difference that nature recovery can make to selected risk events in the National Risk Register (informed by the State of Natural Capital Report)

Natural England

This public procurement record has 5 releases in its history.

TenderUpdate

26 Aug 2026 at 16:57

UK4 - Tender Notice
TenderUpdate

26 Aug 2026 at 16:29

UK4 - Tender Notice
TenderUpdate

21 Aug 2026 at 12:09

UK4 - Tender Notice
TenderUpdate

29 Jul 2026 at 16:32

UK4 - Tender Notice
Tender

29 Jul 2026 at 16:29

UK4 - Tender Notice
Summary of the contracting process

Natural England is commissioning research services to quantify how nature recovery could change the likelihood and impact of seven nature-related risks in the National Risk Register 2025. The work will build on Natural England’s 2024 State of Natural Capital Report, which brings together evidence on the condition of England’s natural capital but presents its risk findings qualitatively. The research is intended to demonstrate how nature recovery could mitigate increases in selected national risks and to develop quantified links between natural-capital evidence and other policy areas. The work sits within Natural England’s Natural Capital and Economics Teams and is to be delivered in the United Kingdom. The CPV classification is research services.

The process reached tender: Natural England invited suppliers to submit quotations through a below-threshold open competition. There is one lot. Quotations had to meet the requirements in the Request for Quotation and be sent electronically by 5:00pm BST on 4 September 2026. The intended contract period is 29 September 2026 to 26 February 2027. The estimated value is £41,250 excluding VAT, or £49,500 including VAT. The lot is suitable for small and medium-sized enterprises. Evaluation details are set out in the Request for Quotation. Clarification questions and responses were to be handled by email, with non-commercially sensitive questions and answers circulated to tenderers.

This opportunity suits research consultancies, academic teams and specialist environmental economists able to analyse the relationship between nature recovery and national risks. Suppliers will need to work with quantitative evidence from the State of Natural Capital Report and the National Risk Register, identify defensible connections between chronic environmental risks and future event risks, and translate those connections into proportionate estimates of changes in likelihood and impact. The requirement favours teams experienced in environmental evidence, natural-capital assessment, risk analysis, economic modelling and policy-facing research. Natural England is seeking strategic, proportionate and complexity-sensitive quantification rather than an unnecessarily elaborate model, alongside an approach that can support similar cross-policy analysis in future.

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Notice Information

Notice Title

Quantifying the difference that nature recovery can make to selected risk events in the National Risk Register (informed by the State of Natural Capital Report)

Notice Description

This commission sits within Natural England's Natural Capital and Economics Teams, which work on evidence to ensure that nature, and the multiple benefits it provides, are considered in decision-making. In 2024, Natural England published a State of Natural Capital Report State of Natural Capital Report (SONC). It brings together the best available evidence on the state of England's natural capital. It aims to wake up policymakers, and other decision-makers, to risks from natural capital loss and convince them to invest in, and protect, nature. SONC contains significant quantitative information. However, its output is qualitative. The lack of quantification means that audiences who are unfamiliar with environmental evidence are unable to weigh the importance of our risk ratings against other risk ratings in their own policy area. This project aims to extend the SONC work into quantification, specifically through reference to 7 risks in the National Risk Register National Risk Register 2025 (NRR). We are working with the idea that changes in the chronic risks impact on the future likelihood and impact of the event risks in the NRR. Specifically, we are interested in the potential of nature recovery to mitigate expected increases in the likelihood and impacts of a selected group of NRR risks which are nature related. Project Aims: This project has two aims. These are: 1) to make the case for nature recovery, through demonstrating the potential for nature recovery to mitigate increases in selected NRR risks. 2) to develop our ability to make quantified connections from SONC to other policy areas to support future work. We are looking for strategic, proportionate and complexity-sensitive quantification, and set out further what we mean by this below.

Notice Details

Publication & Lifecycle

Open Contracting ID
ocds-h6vhtk-06d6e2
Publication Source
Find A Tender Service
Latest Notice
https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/081509-2026
Current Stage
Tender
All Stages
Tender

Procurement Classification

Notice Type
UK4 - Tender Notice
Procurement Type
Standard
Procurement Category
Services
Procurement Method
Open
Procurement Method Details
Below threshold - open competition
Tender Suitability
SME
Awardee Scale
Not specified

Common Procurement Vocabulary (CPV)

CPV Divisions

73 - Research and development services and related consultancy services

CPV Codes

73110000 - Research services

Notice Value(s)

Tender Value
£41,250 Under £100K
Lots Value
£41,250 Under £100K
Awards Value
Not specified
Contracts Value
Not specified

Notice Dates

Publication Date
26 Aug 20261 months ago
Submission Deadline
4 Sep 2026Expired
Future Notice Date
Not specified
Award Date
Not specified
Contract Period
29 Sep 2026 - 26 Feb 2027 1-6 months
Recurrence
Not specified

Notice Status

Tender Status
Active
Lots Status
Active
Awards Status
Not Specified
Contracts Status
Not Specified

Buyer & Supplier

Contracting Authority (Buyer)

Main Buyer
Natural England
Contact Name
Available with D3 Tenders Premium →
Contact Email
Available with D3 Tenders Premium →
Contact Phone
Available with D3 Tenders Premium →

Buyer Location

Locality
LONDON
Postcode
SW1P 4DF
Postcode Area
South West London
Country
England
Major Region (ITL 1)
TLI London
Basic Region (ITL 2)
TLI3 Inner London - West
Small Region (ITL 3)
TLI35 Westminster and City of London
Delivery Location
Not specified
Local Authority
Westminster
Electoral Ward
St James's
Westminster Constituency
Cities of London and Westminster

Further Information

Notice Documents

Open Contracting Data Standard (OCDS)

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