Award

Stochastic - Economic scenario generator

GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT

This public procurement record has 3 releases in its history.

AwardUpdate

19 Jul 2022 at 15:59

AwardUpdate

04 Mar 2022 at 12:39

Award

04 Mar 2022 at 12:33

Summary of the contracting process

The Government Actuary Department (GAD) is seeking a provider for stochastic economic scenario generation, a critical service for forecasting key economic variables, including asset returns and inflation. The tender, titled "Stochastic - Economic scenario generator," was issued under an open procurement method and is classified under actuarial services, with a contract value of £170,843.38. The contract period is set to commence on 7th January 2022 and extend until 6th January 2025. Tender submissions were due by 11th August 2021, with the delivery address located in London (postal code EC4A 1AB).

This procurement presents significant opportunities for businesses specializing in actuarial services and economic forecasting. Companies equipped with the capability to provide robust stochastic models and deliver regular scenario updates are particularly well-suited for this tender. Interested bidders should also consider offering additional services, such as stress testing and scenario generation based on different economic assumptions, to enhance their proposal to GAD, thereby fostering business growth in a transitioning economic landscape.

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Notice Title

Stochastic - Economic scenario generator

Notice Description

A key part of our advice relates to, or relies on, the potential outturns for key economic variables - in particular in relation to asset returns, inflation and future interest rates. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a set of stochastic economic scenarios ("scenarios", "scenario set" or "economic scenario file"). The economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering inflation, interest rates, credit, derivatives, FX and a range of asset classes. The scenarios are used in several areas of our advice, particularly for asset liability model runs for pension schemes, and are used to examine and illustrate the potential range of possible future outcomes. We require that a set of scenarios be provided to us regularly, at least quarterly, over the period of the contract. We also required that the scenarios: i) are based on sound economic principles and methods; ii) are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date of the calibration to ensure consistency with the date at which they are used; and iii) are calibrated to reflect either the provider's own view or GAD's own house-view on the long-term outcome for key economic variables in the scenario set. GAD does not currently have a current provider of this service, though we have previously purchased one-off calibrations to support particular projects. In addition to the standard scenario files based on these principles, it is standard actuarial practice to consider other plausible assumptions and demonstrate the sensitivity of our advice to other assumptions. To inform this, we also require the ability to generate additional scenarios based on alternative views and calibration parameters and/or carry out stress testing on the scenario set. GAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an "economic scenario model" to provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to current levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to us based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the supplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us directly. However, depending on the level of capacity and capability required to maintain and run such models ourselves, GAD are interested to explore this as an additional service and tenderers are invited to disclose such service provision in their response. Tenders for must be submitted via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Failure to do so may result in the tender response not being processed or the response being automatically disqualified during the evaluation stage of the tender process.

Publication & Lifecycle

Open Contracting ID
ocds-b5fd17-8e4f86b1-7e35-4250-918c-634212fad50f
Publication Source
Contracts Finder
Latest Notice
https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/ff90fc5a-9c59-4bc8-8117-3ad69683b3fc
Current Stage
Award
All Stages
Award

Procurement Classification

Notice Type
Award Notice
Procurement Type
Standard
Procurement Category
Services
Procurement Method
Open
Procurement Method Details
Open procedure (above threshold)
Tender Suitability
Not specified
Awardee Scale
Large

Common Procurement Vocabulary (CPV)

CPV Divisions

66 - Financial and insurance services


CPV Codes

66519600 - Actuarial services

Notice Value(s)

Tender Value
£170,843 £100K-£500K
Lots Value
Not specified
Awards Value
£170,843 £100K-£500K
Contracts Value
Not specified

Notice Dates

Publication Date
19 Jul 20223 years ago
Submission Deadline
11 Aug 2021Expired
Future Notice Date
Not specified
Award Date
7 Jan 20224 years ago
Contract Period
7 Jan 2022 - 6 Jan 2025 3-4 years
Recurrence
Not specified

Notice Status

Tender Status
Complete
Lots Status
Not Specified
Awards Status
Active
Contracts Status
Not Specified

Contracting Authority (Buyer)

Main Buyer
GOVERNMENT ACTUARY DEPARTMENT
Contact Name
Available with D3 Tenders Premium →
Contact Email
Available with D3 Tenders Premium →
Contact Phone
Available with D3 Tenders Premium →

Buyer Location

Locality
LONDON
Postcode
EC4A 1AB
Post Town
Central London
Country
England

Major Region (ITL 1)
TLI London
Basic Region (ITL 2)
TLI3 Inner London - West
Small Region (ITL 3)
TLI35 Westminster and City of London
Delivery Location
Not specified

Local Authority
City of London
Electoral Ward
Farringdon Without
Westminster Constituency
Cities of London and Westminster

Supplier Information

Number of Suppliers
1
Supplier Name

MOODY'S ANALYTICS

Open Contracting Data Standard (OCDS)

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