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2026-021 Econometrics and Economic Analysis

Ofgem

This public procurement record has 1 release in its history.

Award

23 Sep 2026 at 17:45

Award Notice
Summary of the contracting process

Ofgem appointed an economic and econometric consultancy to act as its strategic analytical partner for the development and delivery of the ED3 electricity distribution price control. The work includes advising on the regulatory framework and methods, assessing network companies’ cost proposals and business plans, and examining whether proposed spending and outputs are efficient, justified and deliverable. The supplier may also help shape outputs, incentives and uncertainty mechanisms, advise on related RIIO3 work and prepare for RIIO4, and support Ofgem if ED3 decisions are challenged. The assignment involves producing models, reports and advice, keeping a transparent audit trail, presenting analysis to Ofgem and stakeholders, and providing technical evidence and support in appeals. This is specialist energy economics and econometrics consultancy, bought by Ofgem for its regulatory work in the United Kingdom and beyond.

The procurement has been awarded following an open procedure. CEPA LLP was selected on 1 September 2026, for a contract running from 1 September 2026 to 31 March 2030. The awarded value is £3 million. The original tender deadline was 1 January 2026. The requirement was presented as a single, undivided contract, and small and medium-sized enterprises were considered suitable. The award reflects a requirement for specialist analytical support across electricity distribution price control development, with additional work potentially commissioned for RIIO3, RIIO4 preparation and related ED3 matters. The stated scope includes scrutiny of network company business plans and expenditure, modelling advice, stakeholder engagement and possible support during appeals. The recorded procurement category is services; the principal classification is business analysis consultancy.

For a supplier considering comparable future work for Ofgem, this award shows demand for a sustained regulatory economics partner able to combine econometrics, cost modelling and detailed scrutiny of electricity network business plans. A credible competitor would need to evaluate expenditure efficiency and deliverability, test assumptions and uncertainty scenarios, and advise on price-control methods, outputs and incentives. The work also favours teams able to provide clear, reproducible models and maintain a robust audit trail, explain recommendations to technical and senior audiences, and produce material suitable for publication or formal challenge. Capacity to support stakeholder groups and, when required, prepare technical evidence and defend analysis in appeal proceedings would be relevant. Ofgem marked the procurement as suitable for SMEs, so specialist consultancies as well as larger firms may be positioned to deliver, including through a consortium where capabilities need to be combined.

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Notice Information

Notice Title

2026-021 Econometrics and Economic Analysis

Notice Description

Ofgem is seeking a consultancy or consortium to act as a strategic analytical partner to provide specialist economic, econometric and cost modelling advice to support the development and delivery of the ED3 electricity distribution price control, with additional call-off support for RIIO3 and preparatory work for the future RIIO4 framework where required. Under this contract, the supplier will provide specialist economic and econometric support to enable the development and delivery of ED3. This includes advising on the framework, reviewing methodological choices, and supporting Ofgem's cost assessment and detailed scrutiny of network company business plans. The supplier will evaluate the efficiency and justification of proposed expenditure and outputs, assess how companies address uncertainty and scenario driven cost variations, and test the coherence and deliverability of business plans. They may also support the design and calibration of outputs, incentives and uncertainty mechanisms, as well as provide analytical or advisory input in the event of any appeals following Final Determinations. In addition to ED3, the supplier may be commissioned to provide wider economic advice across RIIO 3 and preparatory work for RIIO 4. This may include: * support with RIIO 3 outputs, incentives and re-openers * analytical work underpinning the transition to more digital, structured and AI enabled approaches to cost assessment and price control design; and * strategic adv...nal or ad hoc RIIO/ED3 related work will be commissioned under the contract rate card. * Meetings, Clarifications and Publication Requirements The supplier will be required to: * maintain a clear, detailed and transparent audit trail for all analysis, raw data, assumptions and models; * provide all models and analytical outputs to Ofgem at relevant milestones; * where required, attend meetings with Ofgem teams, the Ofgem Board (GEMA) and, network companies; * Attend stakeholder working groups, create and present materials; and * provide advice and explanation of recommendations, and support Ofgem throughout internal challenge processes. All outputs produced under this contract - including models, reports, advice and other materials should be suitable for external use and publication, including on the Ofgem website and within documents used in any Competition Markets Authority (CMA) appeal, judicial review or other challenge. Unless made clear by Ofgem as part of the associated work order. * Support During Appeals or Challenges In the event of any appeal following ED3 Final Determinations, the supplier may be required to: * assist Ofgem in reviewing and responding to appellant arguments; * replicate or stress test modelling submitted by network companies; * prepare technical evidence for Ofgem's legal teams and Counsel; * contribute to analytical content required for the CMA process; * be a part of the appeal hearing to defend relevant technical work.

Notice Details

Publication & Lifecycle

Open Contracting ID
ocds-b5fd17-08489271-ee5e-48b1-a58c-71f409345538
Publication Source
Contracts Finder
Latest Notice
https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/d98a80c5-a261-4e1c-b372-deb3a9d0fd34
Current Stage
Award
All Stages
Award

Procurement Classification

Notice Type
Award Notice
Procurement Type
Standard
Procurement Category
Services
Procurement Method
Open
Procurement Method Details
Open procedure
Tender Suitability
SME
Awardee Scale
Not specified

Common Procurement Vocabulary (CPV)

CPV Divisions

71 - Architectural, construction, engineering and inspection services

72 - IT services: consulting, software development, Internet and support

79 - Business services: law, marketing, consulting, recruitment, printing and security

CPV Codes

71314000 - Energy and related services

71314200 - Energy-management services

72221000 - Business analysis consultancy services

72224000 - Project management consultancy services

79400000 - Business and management consultancy and related services

Notice Value(s)

Tender Value
£3,000,000 £1M-£10M
Lots Value
Not specified
Awards Value
£3,000,000 £1M-£10M
Contracts Value
Not specified

Notice Dates

Publication Date
23 Sep 20261 weeks ago
Submission Deadline
Not specified
Future Notice Date
Not specified
Award Date
1 Sep 20261 months ago
Contract Period
1 Sep 2026 - 31 Mar 2030 3-4 years
Recurrence
Not specified

Notice Status

Tender Status
Complete
Lots Status
Not Specified
Awards Status
Active
Contracts Status
Not Specified

Buyer & Supplier

Contracting Authority (Buyer)

Main Buyer
Ofgem
Contact Name
Available with D3 Tenders Premium →
Contact Email
Available with D3 Tenders Premium →
Contact Phone
Available with D3 Tenders Premium →

Buyer Location

Locality
LONDON
Postcode
E14 4PU
Postcode Area
East London
Country
England
Major Region (ITL 1)
TLI London
Basic Region (ITL 2)
TLI4 Inner London - East
Small Region (ITL 3)
TLI42 Tower Hamlets
Delivery Location
Not specified
Local Authority
Tower Hamlets
Electoral Ward
Canary Wharf
Westminster Constituency
Poplar and Limehouse

Supplier Information

Number of Suppliers
1
Supplier Name

CEPA LLP

Further Information

Notice Documents

Open Contracting Data Standard (OCDS)

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