Understanding the environmental impacts of displacing UK agricultural/commodity production
Description: There is increasing pressure on land use in the UK due to demands from housing development and commitments to Net Zero and nature. This, combined with a changing climate, mean there may be less land available for agricultural commodity production within the UK. This may result in a displacement of production overseas. While there is good evidence on the carbon, biodiversity and other environmental impacts that any given land use change will bring in situ, there is currently no established method of identifying 1) where crops are likely to be grown instead and 2) what impacts this displaced crop growth may have. A way to estimate these could provide evidence that would help guide land use decisions and policy by providing a holistic understanding of both the domestic (read more...)
Summary: JNCC SUPPORT CO is commissioning environmental research services to understand the consequences of UK agricultural and commodity production being displaced overseas. The work will address pressures on UK land from housing, Net Zero commitments and nature recovery, and the possibility that reduced domestic production leads to increased production elsewhere. The supplier must develop an interim model estimating where a specified quantity of a commodity might instead be produced if UK land is no longer available, using clear and transparent assumptions. It must then estimate the environmental impacts of production in those new locations, including carbon and biodiversity effects, ideally mapping the results to the Global Environmental Impacts of Consumption indicator. The work concerns domestic UK land-use decisions and their international environmental implications.